Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 11.493417 13.167462 14.965961 17.037750 19.354229 21.860195 24.771858
2025-10-26 8.801043 11.025065 13.598186 16.778649 20.586282 24.979628 30.412374
2025-11-02 7.522410 9.983380 12.968824 16.826041 21.643076 27.423198 34.842556
2025-11-09 6.569060 9.187220 12.501844 16.956395 22.729601 29.896731 39.396126
2025-11-16 5.770346 8.455808 11.986400 16.897443 23.469754 31.870030 43.310868
2025-11-23 5.083562 7.783520 11.460479 16.740542 24.017249 33.566814 46.895321
2025-11-30 4.602320 7.334866 11.177179 16.854953 24.887303 35.677735 51.065529
2025-12-07 4.297401 7.102932 11.163551 17.319825 26.234132 38.458867 56.224034
2025-12-14 3.845339 6.600246 10.708157 17.101646 26.580645 39.852819 59.508257
2025-12-21 3.327837 5.940954 9.959448 16.384470 26.142147 40.094932 61.155099
2025-12-28 3.146604 5.800349 9.984654 16.821364 27.405839 42.795904 66.377282
2026-01-04 2.956317 5.624558 9.936229 17.131467 28.480470 45.250047 71.318382
2026-01-11 2.687964 5.295502 9.624134 17.016011 28.912895 46.799726 75.038260
2026-01-18 2.435373 4.968951 9.289543 16.838234 29.231599 48.184455 78.560821
2026-01-25 2.245374 4.734641 9.087823 16.856528 29.847349 50.026329 82.816724
2026-02-01 2.094080 4.556633 8.967257 16.997666 30.659361 52.191897 87.633161
2026-02-08 1.925904 4.328724 8.739164 16.934797 31.123059 53.816593 91.652872
2026-02-15 1.760776 4.089404 8.470359 16.778946 31.414397 55.165890 95.271567
2026-02-22 1.647488 3.943007 8.359927 16.893097 32.161115 57.264628 100.136940
2026-03-01 1.587636 3.901682 8.442962 17.359060 33.530318 60.420566 106.795485
2026-03-08 1.450606 3.681428 8.165063 17.140388 33.685674 61.570188 110.221446
2026-03-15 1.271634 3.349076 7.640154 16.421820 32.910580 61.123919 110.994624
2026-03-22 1.228896 3.319706 7.719575 16.859568 34.235134 64.269549 117.823980